Monday, December 12, 2005


The upcoming election in iraq is not going to to do anything but deepen the already exsiting war between the different groups of Iraqis. This elections is the fruit of presifent Bushs presistence on having the january elecion earlier this year, but where is it going? what problems its gonna solve? and what should we expect from the new goverment?
Analysits in the united states say that this elections should be posponded to gather more support to the action from the sunnies, and make further progress towords ending the military risistance.
One might argue that this agenda which the united states commited itself to, has been succesful. This agenda resulted in and interm goverment, an interm parliament, a constitution, and of course paving the way for a new 4-year goverment. All of that is correct, but this agenda failed to meet one important goal, which is national agreement.
In fact, this agenda was the casue of the soaring of the resistance, and icreasing both the quantity and the quality of the attacks against amercan and Iraqi troops.The New York Times says that insiders told the paper that this was not the best plan, there were other plans, but Mr. Bush had to choose this one because America was under a lot of pressure, especially from the Sistani.
The first elections resulted ,after 3 months of debate, in an interm goverment, a coalition between the Shiite and the Kurds. This goverment was not the an i deal one, even its most important supporter, the Sistani, expressed his disappiontment.
In the upcoming elections, the different groups of the Iraqi people will go to the boxes, but the discion of whom to vote to, is going to based on ethnic and religous bases.
This would nothing but deepen the division already exsisting. This elections would not offer a solution for the problems. And by problems, I dont mean the services like water and gas and so on, I mean the biggest problem that is facing the new Iraq.... Division and seperation.
Patrick Kukbern-sorry if I didnt get the spelling right- says that after president Saddam Hussien, there was building and there was distruction, the latter was the most successful till now, he says that Iraqis see seperation as the only was out of this situation. This situation is alrady exisisting in the north, where the Kurds have thier own goverment, police, and even an independent army.
The sunnies say that thier ok with that situation, but they are not saying that becasue the believe in it, they say it because there is nothing they can do about it. But the greatest danger in coming from the south, where Abd Al-Aziz Al-Hakeem wants to form a kind of federation that includes 9 provnices, which leaves the 5 to the central goverment. The Americans are afraid that this would make the new goverment just a bunch of buildings in the green zone. This fear is further deepened especially after the Kurdish goverment signed contract with a cpompany from Norway to look for oil in Zakho. The new constitution gives the provinces to excavate and invest oil in thats is found in thier terittory.
They hope, the Americans, that a new goverment will rise, and this goverment would include the 3 main branches, sunnies, shiite, and kurds. In theory that is the most plausible solution for the problem, but this is just why there is a problem. Because every minister is acting like he owns his office and everybody working in it.
When AL-Jafary came to office, everybody in his office was fired, and new employees were appointed, all from his party. The minister on interior, Bakir Solagh, made the ministry a castle for the memebers of the Islamic reveloution party, Al-Hakeems people. They say that he fired most of the officers appointed by his predecessor, and aappointed new ones, who are members of his party. Most of these new officers do not even speak arabic, not to mention that they still recieve thier paycheck from Tahran.
Mr. Kukbern further adds that the Americans are losing thier infleunce on the country on daily bases, thats situation led them to turn to arab countries like Egypt and Suadi Arabia, which the americans ignored untill till recently.
The new Iraq, Mr, Kukbern says, would be nothig but a name on the map.


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